# Table 4: Flow → Outcome Regressions

## IV Results (Gravity-Predicted Demographic Inflows as Instrument)

| Outcome | N | 1st-F | IV β | Bootstrap SE | p |
|---------|---|-------|------|-------------|---|
| IV: Portfolio → Capital Deepening | 2995 | 22.5 | 0.0009 | 0.0010 | 0.3432 |
| IV: Portfolio → Investment/GDP | 2590 | 16.0 | -0.7097 | 0.3866 | 0.0665 |
| IV: Portfolio → TFP Growth | 2084 | 32.1 | -0.0037 | 0.0023 | 0.1117 |
| IV: Portfolio → GDP Growth | 3014 | 28.1 | -0.5629 | 0.2172 | 0.0096 |
| IV: Portfolio → MPK Proxy | 2369 | 20.1 | -0.0029 | 0.0017 | 0.0814 |

## OLS and Reduced Form

| Model | N | R² | Flow β | SE | p |
|-------|---|-----|--------|-----|---|
| OLS: Portfolio → Capital Deepening | 2995 | 0.0142 | -0.0000 | 0.0001 | 0.7898 |
| Reduced Form: Demo Inflows → Capital Deepening | 2995 | 0.0148 | 0.0017 | 0.0019 | 0.3568 |
| OLS: Portfolio → Investment/GDP | 2590 | -0.0079 | 0.0197 | 0.0124 | 0.1119 |
| Reduced Form: Demo Inflows → Investment/GDP | 2590 | -0.0037 | -1.0457 | 0.2686 | 0.0001 |
| OLS: Portfolio → TFP Growth | 2084 | 0.0294 | -0.0004 | 0.0003 | 0.1922 |
| Reduced Form: Demo Inflows → TFP Growth | 2084 | 0.0301 | -0.0065 | 0.0035 | 0.0658 |
| OLS: Portfolio → GDP Growth | 3014 | 0.1002 | -0.0282 | 0.0114 | 0.0133 |
| Reduced Form: Demo Inflows → GDP Growth | 3014 | 0.1045 | -1.1433 | 0.2118 | 0.0000 |
| OLS: Portfolio → MPK Proxy | 2369 | -1.9315 | -0.0002 | 0.0001 | 0.0876 |
| Reduced Form: Demo Inflows → MPK Proxy | 2369 | -1.9064 | -0.0047 | 0.0023 | 0.0409 |
| OLS: Portfolio → K/L | 2995 | 0.0142 | -0.0000 | 0.0001 | 0.7898 |
| OLS: Portfolio → Invest | 2590 | -0.0079 | 0.0197 | 0.0124 | 0.1119 |
| OLS: FDI → K/L | 2995 | 0.0184 | 0.0001 | 0.0001 | 0.0158 |
| OLS: FDI → Invest | 2590 | -0.0141 | -0.0276 | 0.0078 | 0.0004 |

*Bootstrap SEs from 100 cluster-bootstrap iterations (resampling countries).*
